Fig. 3

Final clinical tools. A Decision tool based on birthweight and temperature. Black lines represent WHO guidelines for normal birthweight (> 2500 g) and temperature (36.5–37.5 °C). Light orange area predicts death, green area predicts survival (10,000 simulated points). Dark orange line shows cut-off points, predicting survival for points above. Black stars represent observed deaths (n = 80), and white stars represent survivals (n = 85). B Decision tool based on temperature, heart rate and birthweight. Black dots represent observed deaths (n = 80), and white dots represent survivals (n = 85). Orange lines show different cut-offs based on birthweight. Infants above the cut-off line for their birth weight are predicted to survive (see arrows). For birthweights other than the three shown, selecting the cut-off associated with a lower birthweight is the conservative choice. For both tools, grey area shows temperature/heart rate extremes with few datapoints, not to be used