Table 1 Input data for Markov model.
Parameter | Value (range) | Source(s) |
|---|---|---|
Annual risk of tuberculous infection | (0.001–0.01) | Assumed |
Annual rate of decline in the risk of infection | 0.14 (0.0–0.14) | 23 |
Relative risk of primary infection if vaccinateda | 0.39 (0.20–0.43) | 20–22, 32 |
Relative risk of meningeal or miliary TB if vaccinateda | 0.14 (0.05–0.35) | 1,19 |
Risk of TB following primary infectiona | 0.22 (0.14–0.30) | 23, 25, 26 |
Risk of TB due to reactivationa | 0.0009 (0.0008–0.001) | 23, 25 |
Risk of TB following exogenous reinfectiona | 0.058 (0.028–0.092) | 23, 25 |
Proportion of TB cases with meningeal TB (0–4 years) | 0.040 (0.033–0.047) | 33 |
Proportion of TB cases with meningeal TB (5–14 years) | 0.015 (0.006–0.020) | |
Risk of neurological sequel from meningeal TBa | 0.29 (0.13–0.39) | 24, 34, 35 |
Proportion of TB cases with miliary TB (0–4 years) | 0.0086 (0.0050–0.012) | 33 |
Proportion of TB cases with miliary TB (5–14 years) | 0.0055 (0.0015–0.01) | |
Risk of disseminated BCG infection among vaccinated infants born with SCIDb | 0.36 (0.19–0.56) | 36 |
Risk of fatality from meningeal TBb | 0.091 (0.030–0.15) | Health Canada data |
Risk of fatality from miliary TBb | 0.29 (0.23–0.36) | |
Risk of fatality from other forms of TBb | 0.0013 (0.0013–0.007) | |
Risk of fatality, unvaccinated infants with SCIDa | 0.25 (0.19–0.33) | 37–39 |
Risk of fatality, disseminated BCG infectiona | 0.87 (0.8–0.97) | 2, 5 |
Utility value for acute meningeal TBa | 0.93 (0.81–0.95) | Manitoba hospital data |
Utility value for miliary TBa | 0.92 (0.69–0.97) | |
Utility value for other forms of TBa | 0.98 (0.97–0.98) | |
Utility value for neurological sequel following acute meningeal TBc | 0.43 (0.37–0.49) | Survey |