Clinical prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a systematic review and external validation study

Onland, Wes; Debray, Thomas P; Laughon, Matthew M; Miedema, Martijn; Cools, Filip; Askie, Lisa M; Asselin, Jeanette M; Calvert, Sandra A; Courtney, Sherry E; Dani, Carlo; Durand, David J; Marlow, Neil; Peacock, Janet L; Pillow, J Jane; Soll, Roger F; Thome, Ulrich H; Truffert, Patrick; Schreiber, Michael D; Van Reempts, Patrick; Vendettuoli, Valentina; Vento, Giovanni; van Kaam, Anton H; Moons, Karel G; Offringa, Martin

doi:10.1186/1471-2431-13-207

BMC Pediatrics

Table 4 Areas under the ROC curve of the different prediction models

From: Clinical prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a systematic review and external validation study

	Original cohort		PreVILIG cohort
Study	Derivation	Internal	BPD at 36 wks PMA					Combined Death or BPD
			CCA			MI		CCA			MI
	AUC	AUC	N	AUC	(95 % CI)	AUC	(95 % CI)	N	AUC	(95 % CI)	AUC	(95 % CI)
Multivariate models
Sinkin [14]	-	-	829	0.70	(0.67, 0.74)	0.68	(0.66, 0.70)	997	0.75	(0.72, 0.78)	0.74	(0.72, 0.76)
Palta [26]	-	-	346	0.73	(0.67, 0.78)	0.70	(0.68, 0.72)	401	0.74	(0.69, 0.79)	0.75	(0.73, 0.77)
Ryan 1994 [29]	0.91	0.94	2030	0.72	(0.70, 0.74)	0.66	(0.64, 0.68)	2393	0.69	(0.67, 0.71)	0.67	(0.65, 0.69)
Rozycki [30]	-	-	2429	0.54	(0.53, 0.56)	0.52	(0.50, 0.54)	2888	0.54	(0.53, 0.55)	0.55	(0.53, 0.57)
Ryan 1996 [31]	0.85	0.97	1010	0.76	(0.73, 0.79)	0.70	(0.68, 0.72)	1171	0.76	(0.73, 0.78)	0.73	(0.71, 0.75)
Romagnoli [32]	0.97	0.96	390	0.60	(0.55, 0.66)	0.62	(0.60, 0.65)	449	0.61	(0.56, 0.66)	0.65	(0.63, 0.67)
Yoder [33]	-	-	330	0.67	(0.61, 0.73)	0.68	(0.66, 0.70)	380	0.72	(0.67, 0,77)	0.73	(0.71, 0.75)
Kim [34]	0.76	0.90	322	0.71	(0.65, 0.77)	0.68	(0.66,0.70)	366	0.75	(0.70, 0.80)	0.73	(0.71, 0.75)
Choi [36]	-	-	913	0.60	(0.56, 0.64)	0.66	(0.64, 0.68)	1050	0.69	(0.66, 0,72)	0.71	(0.69, 0.73)
Henderson-Smart [37]	0.84	0.84	2128	0.65	(0.62, 0.67)	0.64	(0.62, 0.66)	2585	0.69	(0.67, 0.71)	0.69	(0.67, 0.71)
Ambalavanan [39]	-	-	795	0.61	(0.57, 0.65)	0.65	(0.63, 0.67)	891	0.66	(0.62, 0.70)	0.69	(0.67, 0.71)
Laughon [40]	0.81	0.81	801	0.70	(0.67, 0.74)	0.71	(0.69. 0.73)	960	0.74	(0.70, 0.77)	0.74	(0.72, 0.76)
Fowlie [45]	NA	NA	1006	0.64	(0.60, 0.67)	0.65	(0.63, 0.68)	1166	0.69	(0.66, 0.72)	0.69	(0.67, 0.71)
Hentschel [46]	NA	NA	1885	0.66	(0.64, 0.69)	0.65	(0.63, 0.67)	2256	0.71	(0.69, 0.73)	0.70	(0.68, 0.72)
Bivariate models		External
May [48]	NA	0.76	1918	0.55	(0.52, 0.58)	0.54	(0.52, 0.56)	2262	0.60	(0.58, 0.63)	0.58	(0.56, 0.60)
Univariate models
*Oxygenation index*
Srisuparp [42]	NA	0.65	896	0.50	(0.46, 0.54)	0.54	(0.51, 0.56)	1029	0.53	(0.50, 0.57)	0.52	(0.52, 0.57)
Greenough [44]	NA	0.72	896	0.50	(0.46, 0.54)	0.54	(0.51, 0.56)	1029	0.53	(0.50, 0.57)	0.52	(0.52, 0.57)
*Gestational age*
Subhedar [41]	NA	0.81	2428	0.65	(0.63, 0.68)	0.64	(0.61, 0.66)	2885	0.70	(0.68, 0.72)	0.67	(0.67, 0.70)
Choukroun [43]	NA	0.73
Greenough [44]	NA	0.42
*Birth weight*
Subhedar [41]	NA	0.82	2429	0.69	(0.66, 0.71)	0.67	(0.65, 0.69)	2888	0.73	(0.71, 0.75)	0.69	(0.69, 0.73)
Choukroun [43]	NA	0.73
Greenough [44]	NA	0.54
*Maximum FiO2*	NA	0.66	2126	0.54	(0.52, 0.57)	0.55	(0.53, 0.57)	2511	0.60	(0.57, 0.62)	0.56	(0.56, 0.60)
*Antenatal steroids*	NA	0.54	2347	0.53	(0.51, 0.55)	0.52	(0.50, 0.54)	2800	0.50	(0.48, 0.52)	0.50	(0.48, 0.52)
*Surfactant*	NA	0.77	2429	0.55	(0.53, 0.57)	0.52	(0.51, 0.54)	2888	0.53	(0.52, 0.55)	0.53	(0.51, 0.54)
*Ventilation > 7 days*	NA	0.75	2190	0.64	(0.62, 0.66)	0.59	(0.58, 0.61)	2556	0.58	(0.57, 0.60)	0.58	(0.56, 0.59)

CCA Complete case analysis; MI Multiple imputation analyses; AUC Area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristics; CI Confidence interval; NA Not applicable.

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